It's Not a Debt Problem.
It's a Revenue Problem.
Our analysis of African sovereign debt reveals that for countries like Nigeria, low debt stock masks a critical failure in revenue mobilization and toxic "r-g" dynamics.
The Sustainability Scorecard
We assessed 14 economies on three critical dimensions: Debt Stock (Debt/GDP), Fiscal Flow (Primary Balance), and Debt Dynamics (r-g).
Filter by sustainability status below.
Using K-Means clustering, we identified 3 distinct fiscal profiles. Nigeria falls into the "Vulnerable Baseline" cluster—moderate debt, but high interest rate risk.
Bubble size represents Growth Volatility.
Quantifying the Governance Failure
We used Panel Regression to isolate Nigeria's country-specific effect on fiscal balance.
After controlling for GDP growth, interest rates, and debt levels, Nigeria performs 5.0% of GDP worse on Primary Balance than its peers.
Interpretation:
This residual is the quantifiable cost of revenue leakage, weak tax administration, and inefficiencies. It proves the crisis is structural, not cyclical.
Simulating debt trajectories under different economic conditions for the "Vulnerable Baseline" (Cluster 0).
Status Quo. Debt creeps up to 72% by 2030.
Rates +2%. Breaches 60% threshold by 2028.
Revenue +5% GDP. Debt stabilizes and declines.
Fixing Flow, Not Stock
Target 5-10% of GDP in non-oil revenue. Implement aggressive reforms in VAT compliance and customs digital automation.
SDG 16Prioritize SDG 9 (Infrastructure) investment. Borrowing must be ring-fenced for growth-enhancing capital projects to boost 'g'.
SDG 9Adopt fiscal administration practices from Cluster 1 (Fiscal Vanguards) like Togo to reduce leakage and improve primary balance.
SDG 17